The evaluation relies on rolling month-to-month 15-year home windows from 1965 to 2025 and could possibly be improved in future analysis utilizing moment-match parametric Monte Carlo simulations or bootstrapping from noticed returns.
Future analysis might additionally incorporate longer time horizons, multi-factor portfolios, further asset lessons, dynamic withdrawal insurance policies, and regime-based danger administration methods.
Distributions had been set as a share of the portfolio versus a tough preliminary greenback quantity, each sensible and behaviorally pushed. Nevertheless, there are lots of different acceptable and generally used methods to take distributions, like the most typical 4% beginning quantity, then linearly adjusted for inflation (CPI). Future analysis might examine how varied portfolio designs have an effect on the totally different withdrawal strategies.
Appendix & Citations
Knowledge Supply: Compustat.
Calculation: Hartford Fairness Modeling Platform.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Client Value Index for All City Shoppers: All Gadgets Much less Meals and Power in U.S. Metropolis Common [CPILFESL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/collection/CPILFESL, January 9, 2026.
Model Definitions:
Prime 500 Worth: US prime 500 shares prime 30% based mostly on composite worth as outlined by a number of equally weighted valuation metrics to reach at an aggregated valuation metric. Valuation metrics embody: P/E, EBITDA/EV, working money stream/EV, income/EV, and B/P Yield (used solely in financials and actual property as a substitute to EBITDA/EV), then cap weighted.
Prime 500 Low Volatility: US Prime 500 Shares prime 30% based mostly on a composite volatility rating outlined by a number of equality weighted volatility metrics to reach at an aggregated volatility metric. Volatility metrics embody three-year weekly beta and six-month every day normal deviation, then cap weighted.
Prime 500 Low Volatility VMQ: US Prime 500 Shares prime 50% based mostly on a composite volatility rating outlined by a number of equality weighted volatility metrics to reach at an aggregated volatility metric. Volatility metrics embody three-year weekly beta and six-month every day normal deviation, then cap weighted. Then prime 50% based mostly on mixed rating of fifty% worth, 30% momentum and 20% high quality. Mixed scores for monetary and actual property sector corporations are assigned weightings of 65% Worth and 35% Momentum. Composite worth as outlined by a number of equally weighted valuation metrics to reach at an aggregated valuation metric. Valuation metrics embody: P/E, EBITDA/EV, working money stream/EV, income/EV, and B/P Yield (used solely in financials and actual property as a substitute to EBITDA/EV), then cap weighted. Composite momentum equally weights Final 12 ex-1 month-to-month returns and final 6 ex-1 month-to-month returns to reach at an aggregated momentum metric. Composite high quality makes use of gross profitability to whole property.
Prime 500 Progress: US prime 500 shares prime 30% based mostly on 5 years gross sales progress, then cap weighted.
Prime 500 Cap Weighted: US Prime 500 shares, cap weighted.
Prime 500 Equal Weighted: US Prime 500 shares, equal weighted.
