On Progress and Prosperity: Essays 2019–2024. 2024. Laurence B. Siegel. Edited by Wayne Wagner. Montesquieu Press.
Suppose you rolled into one particular person an intense curiosity about his area, a first-rate intelligence, a long time {of professional} expertise, a present for lucid writing, and an irrepressible humorousness. You’ll get one thing like Laurence B. Siegel, whose propulsively readable essays make up this quantity. They had been chosen by Wayne Wagner, founding accomplice of Wilshire Associates and a person with the breadth of expertise to match Siegel’s.
With two exceptions, the articles are Siegel’s guide evaluations from 2019 by way of 2024. The exceptions are a reprint of a Monetary Analysts Journal article (co-authored by Siegel) and an interview about his guide Fewer, Richer, Greener. The matters span virtually all the things a critical funding skilled should know — not simply to research securities however to understand the financial, technological, and political currents that form them.
Twenty-four articles are grouped into 5 sections: Progress, Investing, Expertise, Political Economic system, and “Provocative.” The questions they tackle are as bold as their titles counsel: What cultural elements stimulate innovation and progress? What mental instruments sharpen funding perception? What should we perceive about know-how to navigate the forces reshaping markets? What ideas of political economic system make clear the swirl of coverage and beliefs? And the way, lastly, can we merely assume higher? On Progress and Prosperity has stimulating solutions to all.
Siegel has the reward of condensing a guide’s insights into memorable phrases and vivid photographs. The quantity is scattered with aphorisms, some his, others borrowed. From Matt Ridley’s How Innovation Works: “Inconceivable preparations of the world, crystallized penalties of vitality technology, are what each life and know-how are all about.” Or “It’s the individuals who drive down prices and simplify the product who make the largest distinction.”
Siegel delights in such clarifying traces. He notes that the pc in your iPhone “has extra computing energy than a $30 million Cray-2 supercomputer from the Eighties — and 100,000 instances that of the Apollo 11 craft.” Reviewing Andrew McAfee’s Extra from Much less, he distills the argument: “Making extra out of much less is what a lot of the human enterprise is about.” On environmental priorities: “Everyone desires a clear setting, however poorer folks need different issues extra –consuming, for instance.” As for recommendation to traders: “Don’t be lazy. Be very lazy.” (Darwin might need permitted.)
Siegel’s overview of Sebastian Mallaby’s historical past of enterprise capital captures the essence of that enterprise with a single mordant line: “All of them contain unreasonable, maladjusted people who find themselves a ache within the neck.” That, too, has funding relevance.
In his tackle Brad DeLong’s Slouching In direction of Utopia, Siegel writes: “Everybody was born right into a world wherein the fundamental elements of a good life have already been invented. We must always ponder our superb luck lest we squander it.” Elsewhere, quoting Roger Ibbotson, he reminds us: “Finance seems terribly sophisticated, however when simplified to its naked necessities it depends on two costs: the worth of danger and the worth of time.” Kevin Coldiron provides the sequel: “With out constructive actual curiosity, subsequently, there might be no capital. With out capital, no capitalism.”
Even the charts and tables are price lingering over. A graph on web page 38 exhibits world GDP taking off like a rocket round 1800. Others reveal when air pollution started falling, how fertility patterns reversed, and the way industries advanced over two centuries of US capitalism. It’s like getting a visible refresher in financial historical past — with out tuition.
Siegel by no means loses sight of his viewers. He spells out why every guide or thought issues to funding professionals: “Traders have to be keenly conscious of the sources of, and obstacles to, innovation of their seek for potential returns.” Reviewing McAfee once more, he notes: “Some firms and industries will likely be harm whereas others will likely be helped immensely. Actively managed portfolios can profit from this perception.”
From his Monetary Analysts Journal reprint: “Most determination makers — pension trustees, consultants, and portfolio managers — aren’t conscious of the tendency of mean-variance optimization to amplify the errors of the enter assumptions.” A delicate reminder, and a helpful one.
Siegel isn’t any cheerleader. He praises generously however doesn’t spare criticism. McAfee’s Extra from Much less, he notes, is about one slender side of technological progress, dematerialization, and readers searching for a broader perspective ought to take a look at McAfee’s earlier co-written guide, The Second Machine Age. Of DeLong’s guide: “He imagines his restructuring proposal is liberal, however it’s deeply reactionary, throwing sand within the gears of mobility and ambition.” On the bounds of the market to provide happiness: “That’s as a result of it’s not imagined to! The market is an financial system, not (tempo Ayn Rand) an ethical one.”
To say that Siegel’s evaluations are a concise substitute for the books themselves can be unfair — to the books. Nonetheless, readers in search of sharp, well-informed insights into a number of the most necessary concepts shaping economics and investing will discover On Progress and Prosperity an schooling in itself, and an entertaining one. Some good readers will undoubtedly consult with most of the chapters once more over the course of their careers.
