On the time of writing the earlier version of this column, the US had simply eliminated Venezuelan chief Nicolas Maduro from that nation in a particular forces operation, and flown him to New York to face prices. Weeks later, as I write this column, the US and Israel have launched a army assault on Iran, ostensibly to counter Iran’s march in direction of the profitable creation of nuclear weapons.
Suffice to say, these will not be regular instances in geopolitics. In a hyper-connected world, this issues to Canadian buyers as a result of these occasions might have far reaching penalties—particularly for a globally traded, institutionally held asset resembling Bitcoin (BTC). Extra on this later within the column.
BTC extends losses—what’s subsequent for the crypto market?
Because the chart beneath exhibits, the worth of BTC has fallen about 47% from its all-time highs of October 2025 (based mostly on a 7 day shifting common). Certain, it’s not but fallen 70% to 80% because it did in 2018, 2020 and 2022—however a drawdown of near 50% is a stark reminder that BTC is a extremely unstable asset meant just for aggressive buyers with an especially excessive urge for food for threat.
Supply: Glassnode as of Feb. 25, 2026
Primarily based on evaluation by Glassnode (a analysis firm specializing in digital asset on-chain evaluation), the BTC market has but not proven definitive indicators of restoration. Primarily based on an evaluation of earlier BTC market cycles, Glassnode is of the view that the longer BTC trades between $60,000 and $70,000, the upper the chance of an additional fall in worth.
The analysis in query means that the $70,000 stage is a vital technical marker; due to this fact, BTC must commerce above that stage convincingly for a time period for confidence to re-enter the market.
When will BTC get well and begin climbing once more?
Let’s put this into perspective: With the advantage of hindsight, we will now say that BTC has been in a bear market since October 2025, when it touched a excessive of over $124,000. Meaning BTC has fallen near 50% in simply 5 months. To make certain, this isn’t new within the historical past of BTC, with comparable capitulations seen in all cyclical bear markets of the previous. Nonetheless, the dramatic fall does serve to scare away all however essentially the most excessive conviction BTC buyers.
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Those that’ve held on to their BTC investments by way of the turmoil of the previous 5 months could understandably be looking for some indications of when the downward development would possibly start to reverse. Markets are inherently unpredictable, however historical past does supply some patterns to ponder. Up to now two cyclical bear markets, BTC bottomed about twelve months after its all-time excessive, as proven within the desk beneath.
There isn’t a assure that this historic sample will repeat itself, and it’s finest to be cautious in the usage of historic analogues when making funding selections.
Between geopolitics and rates of interest
As I wrote within the earlier version of this column, BTC’s destiny in 2026 will doubtless rely on two main components: geopolitical uncertainty and the trajectory of rates of interest.
A spike in US-created geopolitical threat might push buyers to contemplate BTC, however the extent to which this occurs will probably be depending on inflation and rates of interest. Which means that whereas buyers could think about investing in so-called exhausting property like gold and BTC to hedge towards geopolitical uncertainty, their propensity to take action could also be restricted if liquidity circumstances are anticipated to be tight.
The assaults on Iran might destabilize oil costs, resulting in larger inflation expectations, resulting in a hawkish stance by The Fed—and this might spook buyers from threat property (like shares, gold, and bitcoin) to comparatively risk-off property like bonds and money.
Whereas it’s tempting to attempt to out-think different buyers by making an attempt to foretell the course of the crypto market, it’s all however unimaginable to take action precisely and persistently. In such an unpredictable world, it’s most likely sensible to revisit one of many fundamentals of investing: asset allocation. For many crypto buyers, BTC most likely accounts for two% to 10% of their complete portfolio. As an alternative of making an attempt to foretell the place the market is headed, buyers could also be higher served by shopping for or promoting BTC based mostly on the rebalancing necessities of their portfolios.
Crypto worth swings are frequent
Cryptocurrencies together with BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, BNB, and others are speculative and extremely unstable property topic to vital worth actions. Even stablecoins, that are seemingly “protected,” could also be dangerous if not adequately backed by real-world property.
Investing in bitcoin and different crypto cash carries vital market, technological, and regulatory dangers. Put money into crypto provided that it aligns together with your broader funding objectives, time horizon, and threat profile, and all the time keep vigilant about crypto scams.
